洪梅,高正飞,曾文华,朱伟军,李明.“海上丝绸之路”沿岸国家海洋综合风险分析与量化评估———以菲律宾为例[J].海洋通报,2019,(3):
“海上丝绸之路”沿岸国家海洋综合风险分析与量化评估———以菲律宾为例
Comprehensive marine risk analysis and quantitative assessment of coastal countries on the "Maritime Silk Road": taking Philippines as an example
投稿时间:2018-08-16  修订日期:2018-10-18
DOI:10.11840/j.issn.1001-6392.2019.03.003
中文关键词:  21 世纪海上丝绸之路  海洋综合风险评估  指标体系  投影寻踪模型
英文关键词:21st Century Maritime Silk Road  comprehensive marine risk assessment  indicator system  projection pursuit model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目 (41875061);江苏省自然科学基金面上项目 (BK20161464);国家科技大学科研计划项目(ZK18-02-48)
作者单位E-mail
洪梅 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院江苏 南京 211101 flowerrainhm@126.com 
高正飞 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院江苏 南京 211101  
曾文华 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院江苏 南京 211101  
朱伟军 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室江苏 南京 210044  
李明 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院江苏 南京 211101  
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中文摘要:
      在“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”重大战略构想的背景下,结合东盟国家对海上丝绸之路的重要作用。本文从海洋经济和海洋环境的角度对东盟国家存在的海洋综合风险进行评估分析,这对我国加强对东盟国家的认识,规避来自海洋方面的风险,更好地与其进行合作具有重要意义。主要针对东盟四国构建了评价海洋综合风险的指标体系;在此基础上,提出了基于改进的投影寻踪方法的海洋综合风险评估模型,以东盟四国中的菲律宾作为代表开展实验验证,最终得到菲律宾的海洋综合风险等级,并依据评级结果对我国与菲律宾的合作提供辅助建议。
英文摘要:
      With the implementation and promotion of China忆s initiative of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, considering their important role in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, this paper assesses and analyzes the maritime risks faced by ASEAN countries from the perspective of marine economy and marine environment. It is of great significance for China to improve the understanding of ASEAN countries and avoid risks from the ocean, which would facilitate better cooperation between China and neighboring countries. In this paper, the comprehensive marine risk assessment index system is constructed for four ASEAN countries. Then a comprehensive marine risk assessment model based on the improved projection pursuit method is proposed. The Philippines among the four ASEAN countries is taken as the representative to carry out the experimental verification. Finally, the comprehensive marine risk grade is obtained. According to the results of the rating,suggestions oncooperation with Philippines are provided.
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