陈子燊,任杰.基于广义 Pareto分布的波高极值序列频率分析[J].海洋通报,2019,(6):656-661
基于广义 Pareto分布的波高极值序列频率分析
Frequency analysis for extreme sequence of wave heights based on generalized Pareto distribution
投稿时间:2019-09-23  修订日期:2019-07-16
DOI:
中文关键词:  广义 Pareto分布  广义极值分布  P-Ⅲ型分布  波高阈值  拟合优度指标
英文关键词:generalized Pareto distribution  generalized extreme value distribution  P-Ⅲ distribution  wave height threshold  goodness of fit index
基金项目:国家自然科学基金 (41371498)
作者单位E-mail
陈子燊 中山大学 新华学院广东 广州 510520中山大学 地理科学与规划学院广东 广州 510275 eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn 
任杰 中山大学 海洋学院近岸海洋科学与技术研究中心广东 广州 510275  
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中文摘要:
      应用广义 Pareto分布 (GPD) 分析超阈值波高序列的设计值。以位于美国北卡罗来纳州的 FRF历时 32年连续测量的逐日波高序列为例,检验了不同波高阈值样本的泊松分布,采用多种方法综合确定最佳阈值的拟合优度指标。对最优广义 Pareto分布和 GEV分布及 P-Ⅲ分布推算的波高重现水平做了对比分析。得到以下结论: (1) 波高的 GPD属于短尾型分布;(2) 拟合优度指标表明构建的波高 GPD模型普遍优于 GEV和 P-Ⅲ型; (3) GPD的参数估计方法对设计波高的计算结果有较大影响。
英文摘要:
      Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) was used to analyze the design value of the peak over threshold wave height sequence. Taking the daily wave height sequence 32 years continuously measured by Field Research Facility (FRF) in north Carolina of the USA as an example, the Poisson distribution under different wave height thresholds samples was tested, and the fitting optimization index of the best threshold was used to comprehensively determine the optimal generalized Pareto distribution. A comparative analysis was made of the return period wave heights among the optimal generalized Pareto distribution, GEV distribution and P-Ⅲ distribution. The following conclusions are obtained: (1) the GPD of wave heights belongs to the short-tailed distribution; (2) the goodness of fit test indicates that the wave height GPD model constructed is generally superior to GEV and P-Ⅲ models; (3) the parameter estimation method of GPD has a great influence on the calculation results of designed wave heights.
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