王俊杰,拾兵,卢仲翰.黄河入海径流量周期变化与东亚夏季风的关系研究[J].海洋通报,2020,(3):316-324
黄河入海径流量周期变化与东亚夏季风的关系研究
Study on the relationship between the periodic change of Yellow River runoff to Bohai Sea and East Asian Summer Monsoon
投稿时间:2019-09-10  修订日期:2019-11-14
DOI:
中文关键词:  径流量  东亚夏季风  集合经验模态分解  交叉小波分析  周期性  黄河
英文关键词:runoff  East Asian Summer Monsoon  ensemble empirical mode decomposition  cross wavelet analysis  periodicity  Yellow River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金 (51279189)
作者单位E-mail
王俊杰 中国海洋大学 工程学院山东 青岛 266100 junjiewang0907@163.com 
拾兵 中国海洋大学 工程学院山东 青岛 266100 sediment@ouc.edu.cn 
卢仲翰 中国海洋大学 工程学院山东 青岛 266100  
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中文摘要:
      为揭示近 70 年东亚夏季风与黄河夏季入海径流量的多尺度特征以及二者之间的响应关系,本文利用集合经验模态分解 (EEMD) 和小波分析对二者的多尺度特征进行研究,利用交叉小波分析和小波相干性等方法对东亚夏季风和黄河夏季入海径流量在时频域内的共振周期以及相干性进行探究。结果表明:东亚夏季风具有显著的年际、年代际尺度特征,且以年际周期振荡最为显著,其中,2.7 a 左右的周期尺度对东亚夏季风的整体影响程度最高,另外,40 a 左右的年代际周期亦具有较强显著性。黄河夏季入海径流量的年际、年代际尺度周期均通过了 80 %的显著性检验,且以 2.1 a 左右的年际周期为主。东亚夏季风与黄河夏季入海径流量的交叉小波功率谱显示二者在 2 a、6~7 a 左右具有显著的共振周期,且在 1980— 1990 年之间通过了 95 %的显著性检验,由二者的小波相干谱发现,东亚夏季风和径流量的显著性在低能量区大于高能量区,且东亚夏季风提前径流量约 1/4 个周期,另外,1980—2000 年之间在 6~7 a 左右周期尺度上二者的相干性极强。该研究可为黄河下游水资源管理及预测提供一定的理论依据。
英文摘要:
      To evaluate the multi-scale features of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the runoff in summer of the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea in nearly 70 years, as well as the response relationship between them, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and wavelet analysis are used to analyze the multi-scale features of EASM and discharge to the sea, also the cross wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence methods are used to study the resonance cycle and coherence in the time-frequency domain of them. The results show that the EASM has significant inter-annual and inter-decadal scale characteristics, and the inter-annual periodic oscillation is the most significant. Among them, the influence of the periodic scale around 2.7 a on the EASM is the highest. In addition, the inter-decadal cycle around 40 a also has strong significance. The annual and decadal cycles of the Yellow River runoff into the Bohai Sea in summer have passed the 80 % significance test, and the inter-annual cycles of about 2.1 a are the main ones. The cross wavelet power spectrum shows that both in 2 a, 6 ~ 7 a around are of a significant resonance cycle. Power spectrum shows that both in 2 a, 6 ~ 7 a around are significant resonance cycles, and between 1980 and 1990, pass the 95 % significance test, the wavelet coherence spectrum analysis found that the correlation between EASM and runoff was greater in the low energy region than in the high energy region, and the EASM leads the runoff by about 1/4 cycle. In addition, between 1980 and 2000, the coherence between them is extremely strong on the periodic scale of 6~7 a. This study can provide certain theoretical basis for the management and prediction of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River
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