潘嵩,王慧,李欢,李文善,徐浩,金波文.基于 SLAMM 模型的海平面上升对广西沿海红树林影响研究[J].海洋通报,2020,(3):325-334
基于 SLAMM 模型的海平面上升对广西沿海红树林影响研究
Study on impact of sea level rise on mangrove in Guangxi of China based on SLAMM model
投稿时间:2019-10-17  修订日期:2019-03-17
DOI:
中文关键词:  海平面上升  红树林  广西  SLAMMS
英文关键词:sea level rise  mangrove  Guangxi of China  SLAMM
基金项目:国家重点研发计划 (2016YFC1402610);国家自然科学基金 (41976025);国家重点研发计划 (2017YFA0604904)
作者单位E-mail
潘嵩 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171 ps2006201@163.com 
王慧 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171 wh_cherry@126.com 
李欢 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171  
李文善 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171  
徐浩 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171  
金波文 国家海洋信息中心天津 300171  
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中文摘要:
      本文基于 SLAMM 模型分析了不同情景下海平面上升对广西沿海红树林分布面积的影响及其空间差异,通过对比实验定量分析了潮差和沉积速率的作用。结果显示,与基准年 2007 年相比,2100 年广西红树林面积在当前海平面上升速率、典型浓度路径 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下分别减少 0.57%、4.99%、7.99%和 17.39%,珍珠港、茅尾海、丹兜海和英罗港受影响程度较大。当地潮差与红树林面积减少率呈负相关关系。需维持红树林生长区域的沉积速率以应对未来的海平面加速上升。
英文摘要:
      Based on different sea level rise (SLR) scenarios, the impact of SLR on mangrove of Guangxi of China and its spatial variability is studied utilizing SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model). The role of tidal range and accretion is analyzed quantitatively by conducting comparison experiment. Results indicate that the reduction rate of the mangrove area by 2100 is 0.57%, 4.99%, 7.99% and 17.39% under the present SLR rate and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively with reference to 2007. The mangrove of Pearl Bay, Maowei Sea,Dandou Sea and Yingluo Bay are deeply affected by SLR. There is a negative correlativity between local tidal range and reduction rate of the mangrove area. Maintaining the rate of accretion is necessary for mangrove to adapt to the accelerated SLR in the futurey.
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