童砚滨,邓增安,姜晓轶.溢油模型与 SSD 曲线法评估渤海溢油事件的海洋生态风险[J].海洋通报,2020,(3):390-400
溢油模型与 SSD 曲线法评估渤海溢油事件的海洋生态风险
Assessing the marine ecological risk of oil spill in Bohai Sea by oil spill model and SSD curve method
投稿时间:2019-08-16  修订日期:2019-12-06
DOI:
中文关键词:  溢油模型  SSD 曲线法  生态风险评估
英文关键词:oil spill model  SSD curve method  ecological risk assessment
基金项目:教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目 (18JZDO059)
作者单位E-mail
童砚滨 天津大学 海洋科学与技术学院天津 300072 tongyb323@163.com 
邓增安 天津大学 海洋科学与技术学院天津 300072 dengzengan@163.com 
姜晓轶 国家海洋信息中心 自然资源部数字海洋重点实验室天津 300171  
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中文摘要:
      海上溢油事故不仅会造成大面积的海水污染,还会对海洋生态系统造成严重破坏。为此,采用有效的方法评估溢油事件引起的生态风险,对防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。本文以发生于 2011 年 6 月的渤海蓬莱 19-3 溢油事故为例,使用两种 溢油模型 (GNOME 轨迹模型与 ADIOS 风化模型) 模拟了事故初期油膜的运动轨迹与风化过程。基于模拟结果,利用 CAFE模型 (Chemical Aquatic Fate and Effect) 拟合了相应的物种敏感度分布 (species sensitivity distribution,SSD) 曲线,首次结合三种模型工具对渤海进行了生态风险评估研究。结果显示,随着原油的持续泄漏,其主要有毒物质 (苯系物) 浓度达到了1 300 滋g /L,超过了 1 % 危害浓度值 (Hazard Concentration 1 %,HC1)。结果表明,在事故初期所产生的生态风险不可忽视,并且风险 (多个物种的潜在影响分数) 会在 96 h 内以每日约 1 %的趋势增长。本文结合溢油运动轨迹和 SSD 曲线,绘制出了事故期间的生态风险时空分布图。经过定量化的评估,首次发现事故的整体生态风险随时间呈近似二次函数增长,同溢油轨迹一样,向西北方向扩散,越靠近溢油源的海域生态风险概率越高。
英文摘要:
      Oil spills not only cause large-scale seawater pollution, but also pose a serious damage to the ecosystem. It is of great significance to disaster prevention by using time-effect methods to assess the ecological risk from oil spills. This paper studies the Penglai 19-3 oil spill incident in the Bohai Sea in June 2011. Two models(GNOME and ADIOS) were used to simulate the oil movement trajectory and weathering process. Afterwards, based on the simulation results, relevant SSD (species sensitivity distribution) curves were fitted by using CAFE (Chemical Aquatic Fate and Effect) model, and conducted studies about ecological risk assessment by combining three modeling tools for the first time. The results show that with the continuous release,the concentration of the main toxic substance (benzene) has reached 1 300 g/L, beyond the 1 % Hazard Concentration (HC1). It shows that the incident has a non-negligible impact on the ecology system in Bohai Sea,and the risk (multiple species potentially affected fraction, msPAF) increased by 1 % per day. Combining of the oil trajectory and SSD curves, the spatiotemporal distribution of ecological risk during the spill has been obtained. Through quantificational assessment, the integral risk increases as a quadratic function, and it spreads to the northwest, similar to oil trajectory. The closer to the source of spill, the higher the probability of ecological risk
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