张敏,米婕,戴志军,朱冬琳,陈波.海平面上升对北部湾风暴潮增水影响研究——以 2012 年台风“山神”为例[J].海洋通报,2021,(3):
海平面上升对北部湾风暴潮增水影响研究——以 2012 年台风“山神”为例
Impacts of sea-level rise on storm surge in the Beibu Gulf:a case study on Typhoon Son-Tinh in 2012
投稿时间:2020-10-29  修订日期:2021-01-27
DOI:
中文关键词:  数值模型  风暴潮  海平面上升  台风“山神”  北部湾
英文关键词:numerical model  storm surge  sea-level rise  Typhoon Son-Tinh  Beibu Gulf
基金项目:国家自然科学基金 (41701001);广西科学院广西近海海洋环境科学重点实验室开放基金 (GXKLHY19-01);国家自然科学重点基金 (41930537)
作者单位E-mail
张敏 上海师范大学 环境与地理科学学院上海 200234 zhangmin@shnu.edu.cn 
米婕 上海师范大学 环境与地理科学学院上海 200234  
戴志军 华东师范大学 河口海岸学国家重点实验室上海 200062 zjdai@sklec.ecnu.cn 
朱冬琳 广西科学院 广西近海海洋环境科学重点实验室广西 南宁 530000  
陈波 广西科学院 广西近海海洋环境科学重点实验室广西 南宁 530000  
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中文摘要:
      全球变暖引发的海平面上升将加剧风暴潮增水,进而危及沿海经济发展与社会安全保障。本文基于模型耦合与模型嵌套技术构建北部湾台风风暴潮数值模拟系统,以 2012 年台风“山神”为天气背景,通过设计 7 组情景模拟研究未来不同海平面上升背景下北部湾风暴潮增水变化。结果表明:风暴潮期间水位从南向北沿北部湾逐渐涌高,最高水位发生在广西沿岸,达 2.4 m 以上。天文潮和台风风场拖曳力是形成高水位的主要驱动力,其中天文大潮和最大风场拖曳力对最高水位的贡献率分别约占 70%和 30%。海平面上升对风暴潮增水的影响具有时空非线性和非均一性特征。其中,潮位波动和波-流耦合效应会改变实际最大增水发生时间,导致钦州湾附近高潮位大致提前 1 天半,海平面上升 1.1 m 使得最大风暴潮增水大致提前30 min;未来海平面上升 0.66耀1.1 m 将导致北部湾大部分海域风暴潮增水幅度放大 6%耀10%,广西沿岸钦州湾和大风江河口出现负增加效应,可能与溺谷海湾地形特征有关。研究结果可为未来北部湾沿岸防御风暴潮灾害提供理论依据。
英文摘要:
      Sea-level rise caused by global warming will increase storm surges, threatening coastal economic development and social safety. A numerical modeling system based on model coupling and model nesting techniques is constructed taking typhoon Son-Tinh in 2012 as an example to study the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on storm surge in the Beibu Gulf under different designing scenarios. The results show that the spatial distribution of maximum water levels in the Beibu Gulf rise gradually from south to north during the typhoon, with the highest water level (> 2.4 m) occurred along the coast of Guangxi. Astronomical tides and typhoon winds are the two main driving forces for forming a high water level, and their contributions to the peak water level is about 70% and 30%, respectively. The effect of SLR on storm surge displayed spatiotemporally nonlinearity and heterogeneity. The tidal level fluctuations and wave-current coupling effects will change the actual maximum storm surge, which occurred about one day and a half in advance, and about 30 minutes in advance under 1.1 m SLR. Moreover, 0.66 m to 1.1 m SLR will increase the storm surge by about 6% to 10%, respectively, in most of the Beibu Gulf area. However, the Qinzhou Bay and the Dafengjiang Estuary in the middle of Guangxi coast showed a slightly decreasing trend, which may be due to the local drowning gulf geomorphological features. The results can provide theoretical basis for prevention of storm surge disasters along the coast of the Beibu Gulf in the future.
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